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🟠 China’s property market in free fall?

🟠 China’s property market in free fall?

Reading time: 4 min 16 sec

December 03, 2025

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Today’s edition is written by:
Michael & Thomas

☕️ Good morning, friends,

Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi not only has a talent for irritating her neighbors, she apparently also knows how to set off fashion trends.

On her first day in office, she showed up with a simple black handbag. It immediately went viral.

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Highlights: In Seoul, Samsung jumped more than 2% after unveiling its first triple-foldable smartphone at a hefty price of over USD 2,400. The KOSPI reacted positively and traded in the green.

TOP BIT

🏚️ China’s housing market hits a new low

Bleak outlook, here in Chongqing

China is still searching for a floor in its property market.

New-build sales are collapsing, second-hand prices are falling across the country and even major state-backed developers like Vanke are under strain. Beijing’s support measures have so far failed to restore confidence and demand.

Details

🏚️ Falling prices instead of stabilizing: In China’s 70 largest cities, residential-property prices are now about 20 to 40 percent below their 2021 peak. Even in top cities like Beijing and Shanghai, prices have dropped year-on-year.

🏦 Homes in the red zone: According to UBS, by the end of 2025 roughly 700,000 apartments will be worth less than their outstanding mortgages. In 2026 the number could exceed 1.8 million. The resulting forced sales add further downward pressure on prices.

🧯 Fire extinguishers for a wildfire: Beijing is considering subsidies for mortgage interest and tax relief. But even a one-percentage-point cut in effective mortgage rates would free up at most 0.5 percent of GDP, according to analysts, which is far too little to unwind a bubble years in the making.

🏦 Proposed stimulus measures barely move the needle: Interest subsidies or tax breaks might reduce monthly payments, but Goldman Sachs says they are far from enough to restore lost confidence.

📆 Recovery measured in years, not quarters: Morgan Stanley and UBS expect sales, new starts and investment in the property sector to keep falling through 2026, stabilizing no earlier than 2027.

Why you should know Vanke

Market barometer: Vanke was long considered the most stable major developer and a model case for solid balance sheets.
State in the background: The largest shareholder is Shenzhen Metro. The city has already provided over 30 billion CNY in support but is signaling tougher conditions ahead.
Rising stakes: Vanke alone must repay more than CNY 13 billion in debt by mid-next year. Markets doubt this can be done without a restructuring.

📊All Details & Data: SCMP, MSN, CNBC

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NUMBER OF THE DAY

That’s how large the share of tech startups along the Shanghai–Nanjing corridor is that still cannot get a bank loan.

💸 Bootstrapping over bank loans: Startups continue to self-fund because banks demand collateral and stable cash flows that young deep-tech teams simply don’t have yet.

🏦 Innovation belt with a bottleneck: Despite strong early-stage VC in Shanghai and a high density of startups in Suzhou, simple unsecured loans and streamlined subsidy programs are missing, leaving much innovation stuck in pitch decks.

Watch: The Shanghai–Nanjing corridor aims to be China’s deep-tech lab. Without a functioning seed and credit market, however, the most ambitious founders may eventually drift to Hong Kong, Singapore, or the U.S.

MARKET BIT

💵 Indonesia’s $1 Billion Entry Into the BRICS Development Bank

High buildings in Jakarta

💰 Indonesia’s billion-dollar ticket into the BRICS bank: Jakarta has pledged a $1 billion capital contribution to the BRICS-led New Development Bank (NDB). The payments can be spread over up to seven years.

🌍 BRICS over Washington: Since January 2025, Indonesia has officially been the 10th member of BRICS. The move serves diversification and a strategic realignment toward the Global South. Background: rising trade barriers toward the West.

🧱 $100bn financial framework: Of the NDB’s authorized capital, BRICS founders have so far subscribed $50bn — consisting of $10bn paid-in capital and $40bn callable guarantee capital. This structure forms the credit leverage for global infrastructure, energy, and sustainable development projects.

🏋🏻 Power remains with the founders: Around 94% of shares and voting rights are still held by the five BRICS founding states. New members such as Indonesia, Egypt, and the UAE are buying in gradually through the remaining free capital.

🧭 Foreign-policy shift with signal effect: Since taking office in 2024, President Prabowo Subianto has pursued a visibly more active foreign policy. The NDB deal is part of a broader strategy to elevate Indonesia’s geopolitical weight.

Big Picture

Indonesia’s entry into the BRICS bank marks a strategic pivot toward a multipolar world order. While the West experiments with protectionism, Jakarta is securing capital, markets, and political options in the Global South. The NDB is increasingly becoming the financial backbone of an alternative development model beyond the World Bank and IMF.

👉🏻 Full Story: Bloomberg, NDB, Indonesia Business Post, Jakarta Globe ID

HEAD OF THE DAY

🇰🇷 Eunse Lee 이은세

🌏 The VC for Asian frontier founders
Founder, former Techstars Korea director and now Managing Partner at 541 Ventures in Los Angeles.

His VC firm invests globally in frontier-tech startups with Asian founders.
Focus areas include deep tech such as big data, HPC, human-device interfaces, cybersecurity and energy technology.

Why he earns a like from us

👍🏻 Builds a bridge between US capital and Asian deep-tech excellence.
👍🏻 Positions himself as a hands-on partner for teams that aim to create not just a product but an entire industry.

HIGHLIGHTS

🇩🇪 Made in Germany meets Made in China: According to a new survey by the German Chamber of Commerce, 56 percent of German companies want to expand their cooperation in China because they increasingly view local rivals as future technology leaders. Six out of ten firms now say openly that Chinese competitors are setting the global pace of innovation. To stay competitive in the world’s most important industrial market, German companies need to localize more and work more closely with Chinese partners.

🎤 J-pop star performs for 14,000 empty seats: Ayumi Hamasaki had to cancel her Shanghai concert one day before the show due to political tensions, but still walked on stage and performed the entire set in a completely empty stadium. The 47-year-old later thanked her 200-member crew and called the performance one of the most meaningful moments of her career. Other Japanese artists have also had to cancel appearances.

🤖 The first ByteDance smartphone has China losing its mind: The TikTok parent’s debut phone sold out on day one because users wanted to try a device that acts on its own instead of simply following commands. The AI phone costs about 490 USD and can handle tasks like restaurant reservations or photo editing through voice instructions. On the resale platform Xianyu, the model is already being sold well above its original price.

COUNTRY READS

🇯🇵 7-Eleven is launching a pilot program with autonomously driven long-haul trucks to address the country’s growing driver shortage. More here.

🇰🇷 Samsung is releasing its first smartphone with a triple-folding display to provoke Chinese competitors. More here.

🇮🇳 India is requiring manufacturers to preinstall a non-removable government app on all smartphones, triggering major privacy concerns. More here.

Are you planning a cooperation with a Chinese partner?

BITS TO DO

✅ Stay healthy during winter even without sunshine and load up on vitamin D.*
✅ Find out how Takaichi’s grind quote became Japan’s slogan of 2025.
✅ Fly from Frankfurt to Seoul and back in January for just €400.
✅ See whether this building is worth a visit on your next trip to Shanghai.
✅ Stock up on premium matcha here on your next visit to Tokyo.